Chelsea's Champions League fate could define a generation
Not since 2003 has one single game so precariously held such consequence for the club's future
When you ask people what was the most important win in Chelsea’s modern history, several answers could spring up.
For pure joy, winning either of the Champions League crowns in Munich and Porto will hold humungous weight. Others may cite the victories that secured Premier League titles, or the FA Cup in 2007 over Manchester United.
However, many cannot look past the 2003 final-day win over Liverpool to secure Champions League football.
This was a result that arguably swung the pendulum of good fortune in Chelsea’s favour. It directly led to the Roman Abramovich takeover, the signing of wonderful players and unearthed an era of unrivaled success.
That game was not just about three points. It was dubbed a ‘£20m knockout bout’ by media at the time. It has since been expressed by players involved that fears over mass sales or a darker timeline that could have led to the club falling into a financial blackhole.
This Sunday’s trip to Nottingham Forest does not hold such apocalyptic connotations should it go wrong. However, it is hard to ignore the pretty significant effect it could for better or worse.
Chelsea’s season will be defined on Sunday and, potentially, their future too. After over a billion spent with no silverware (yet), many lofty promises with little return, the time for this era of Chelsea to offer instant results has never been more severe.
Although noises from inside the club have claimed otherwise, Sunday truly matters. It matters for multiple reasons.
The most immediate comes in the transfer market. Where fans hopes of noteworthy targets such as Rodrygo or Victor Osimhen solely rely on Champions League qualification to even open a door.
Chelsea need immediate upgrades due to an awkwardly constructed squad. The spine of the team is still in question, with a trusted goalkeeper, commanding centre-back and clinical striker still missing. There are concerns over the young age of a squad with sporting directors craving even more inexperience when the opposite is required.
Without that allure of Europe’s elite competition and finance Chelsea will be shopping in a very different market. One that will likely only feed the frustrations that have come to define the previous windows.
Profit and Sustainability now looms over every window. Ben Nelson might be this year’s Omari Kellyman. And what of the likes of Tyrique George and Josh Acheampong? Youngsters who could be the next on that pure profit train to make up for other errors.
It was quite startling pondering if any of last summer’s business had truly made any impact on the team. Chelsea’s Player of the Season was Moises Caicedo (2023). Marc Cucurella has been a standout (2022) Cole Palmer (2023), Enzo Fernandez (2023), Noni Madueke (2023), Nicolas Jackson (2023) have all had positive moments but few coming from the new recruits of 2024.
Pedro Neto has underwhelmed. So has Jadon Sancho. Tosin probably for value comes out best as an older free transfer. But it says a lot that the once banished Trevoh Chalobah was recalled in January to add a stronger option in defence.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall still feels like a pretty needless addition. Renato Veiga and Joao Felix were both loaned out in January. Marc Guiu has suffered with injury but in the first half of the season proved how raw he still is. Filip Jorgensen could become a hero in Wroclaw but in the Premier League has not offered an improvement on Djordje Petrovic or Robert Sanchez.
No Champions League does not mean no good deals can be done at all. Arsenal managed to secure Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko from the reigning Champions after painfully missing out on a top four spot in 2022. However, obvious differences come into play. This was a pre-PSR era, where the restrictions placed on clubs did not hamper lofty ambitions. Arsenal had also not spent a billion with a clock ticking down with a tab needing to eventually be paid.
There is some hope that the surgery required this summer should not be that severe. Mainly benefited by the arrivals of Estevao Willian and Kendry Paez. Along with the returns of Andrey Santos and Djordje Petrovic from Strasbourg. The latter pair coming off individually strong campaigns in a top European league.
The momentum of the club will be halted without a Top 5 finish. Chelsea ending outside it will feel like nothing has changed or moved forward in the past 12 months. Even if Enzo Maresca has improved on the points total, potentially ending in 6th two years running was not the ambition 12 months ago. It should not be accepted now, and you ponder what kind of recriminations will be had internally, if any for that stagnation.
Chelsea have talented young players who did not join the club with the expectation they would be sat at home watching the Champions League for years on end either. The likes of Palmer, Caicedo and Fernandez will eventually get itchy feet as they see peers achieve more.
Even if Chelsea proclaim the unique wisdom of their long-term contract strategy, the reality we all know is that if you are not winning, you are not competing, eventually you have to sell your better players. The desire of those players not only to leave but the financial necessity to bring in funds to buy becomes paramount.
For Maresca, not only would the qualification ensure him a second season, it would buy him time and some credibility at the end of a challenging campaign. As a coach I have criticized, it would be disingenuous to simultaneously act like Sunday is a big deal but then deny credit to Maresca should he win it.
The Italian has overseen some big victories that have kept the season going in challenging circumstances. The games against Liverpool and Manchester United buoyed Stamford Bridge for different reasons but cemented strong home form that is a tangible sign of improvement.
Achieving Champions League qualification will also silence any chat about the change in coach that was made last summer too. Because a 6th place finish with likely a maximum of only 3/4 points improvement is not a significant jump. You could decry how such fine margins lead to extreme judgements, but that is only a result of the expectations created with the spend.
It also fails to account for the failures this season that led to this becoming a one-off game with a direct rival for the same spot away from home. If Chelsea had managed to beat 19th-place home and away. If they had managed to take any points from a weaker Manchester City or taken a firmer grip at Brentford in April would have widened the margin for error.
Losing out in slim fashion is brutal but cannot be looked upon as some hard luck story. Especially when we look at the table before Christmas where the Blues were 2nd, seven points clear of sixth place.
Away from the Bridge is where severe improvement is needed. Only 1 win on the road since December is unacceptable. It is a red flag on mentality, of tactical depth and steeliness in the face of hostility. If Chelsea under Maresca are to even get into the top three, let alone compete for a title, you cannot be so feeble on the road.
That record is why many fear Sunday will end in regret. It is why the performances at Newcastle, Brentford, Aston Villa, Brighton, Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Ipswich and Everton all feel costly now. If even one of those results had gone in Chelsea’s favour, Sunday would not have been a must win.
For the club as a whole, winning on Sunday would be like the first moment of tangible progress since the takeover in 2022. It would not be silverware, which hopefully can be lifted in Wroclaw, but it at the very least can be heralded as something reflecting a step in the right direction.