Making the Case For and Against Chelsea Signing Garnacho
He may not be a popular character, but the numbers make a compelling case
We are all guilty of making snap judgements on players based on little evidence. A bad performance here, a well edited Twitter comp there and we are off to the races. Equally, it works the other way too: Joao Felix being the champion.
Alejandro Garnacho has become persona non grata at Old Trafford. After an abysmal campaign, perception judged that Garnacho had done very little to ascend his surroundings. Rather than rising above the failure, he simply blended into it.
Following United’s loss to Spurs in Bilbao, Garnacho took it upon himself to state his irritation about his game time under Ruben Amorim. There were many fingers being pointed for blame following this embarrassment. But it was Garnacho who shone a spotlight onto his own character
Speaking to TyC Sports, Garnacho said: "It's obviously tough for everyone after this season, which was really sh*t, both now and after losing the Community Shield. We didn't beat anyone. Up until the final, I played every round, I helped the team. Today, playing 20 minutes... I don't know.”
The quotes on their own are not anything scandalous. But coupled with social media posts by close family only poured gas onto the inferno of United chaos. Garnacho wanted out, and United fans wanted him gone too. This is not exactly the perfect backdrop to a target you want to acquire.
If you look at Liam Delap, Joao Pedro, Jamie Gittens and Jorrel Hato, there is a feeling of positive momentum, or just a sense of calm.
Many, including myself, would not sign Garnacho in a perfect transfer window. There are simply too many red flags to discount when you are already well stocked in attack.
What is the harm in Tyrique George gaining more experience? Jamie Gittens offered a clearer path to distinguish himself as first choice? Or Pedro Neto and maybe Nicolas Jackson, a chance to find minutes on the left too?
The seemingly bad attitude. The lapses in judgement off the pitch. The sense that Garnacho is a disruptor behind the scenes, one that could sour a squad that has just been crowned World Champions.
Character matters. Discipline matters. How you respond to times of adversity and elevate those around you also matters? A spreadsheet does not tell you how a player responds to being dropped. How they cope with criticism? Do they rise or fall when challenged by their own coach to improve?
We will get back to the environment a player is surrounded by because it remains highly relevant in this case.
But, when it comes to numbers, a talented player emerges. The strongest case for signing Garnacho is in the data.
As ExpectedChelsea noted, when it comes to adding value and generating shots, the Argentine is in good company across the past two seasons. Seeing him amongst the likes of Florian Wirtz, Lamine Yamal and Jude Bellingham. As ExpectedChelsea also points out, look at who Garnacho is playing for versus his peers.
Direct comparisons to current or past Chelsea players in the same position also place him in a good light. Bettering Pedro Neto in 24/25 for progressive carries, non-penalty goals and non-penalty xG+xA (Expected Goals + Expected Assists).
His United peer Jadon Sancho also pails in comparison from last term. With DataMB showing him better in every metric just mentioned, along with assists, key passes and crosses completed.
If you want more notable data. Via ChicagoDmitry, since 2017, there have been only four times when an Under-21 winger has played over 2000 minutes in a top flight league, taken more than three shots per game, and had more than 2.5 successful carries into the box per game. One of those is Yamal, the other is Estevao. Third and Fourth is Garnacho.
For Shots on Target by Wingers and Attacking Midfielder’s in the Top 5 European Leagues, Garnacho came third, only behind Yamal at Barcelona and Nico Paz at Como. Ironically, Gittens is fourth.
As Billy Beane once said: “He gets on base”. That is what Garnacho does. He seems to be a winger that shoots a lot, and not at a bad accuracy rate. After losing Madueke, Chelsea need to maintain wide players who are not afraid of taking shots when an easy pass may be available.
The data suggests Garnacho, despite all of the noise around him, is still producing good numbers in a terrible Manchester United team. Would those numbers only improve in a better environment?
And this is where you come back to the environment the player has been surrounded by for a long time. Even the most blinkered Mancunian cannot deny how toxic the air has felt around Old Trafford. There are a multitude of factors that have contributed to that air, but it is notable how when players depart they suddenly find fresh energy.
Antony looked pretty hopeless until he ventured to Andalusia with Manuel Pellegrini last winter. Scott McTominay became a hero in Naples as a blisteringly good Napoli side lifted another Scudetto. Even Sancho found some meaning at the Bridge, scoring a beautiful goal to round out a triumphant evening in Wroclaw.
All of these examples add weight to the theory that United drags talent down, not elevates it. And maybe, Garnacho, moving into a group that are buoyed by recent events helps to allay some of those valid concerns.
In a group that are pushing for more, back in the Champions League and with hungry young players all competing for minutes, forces Garnacho to rise rather than being dragged down.
Are his foibles more a symptom of Manchester United, than a damning indictment on who this character actually is?
Back to some basic numbers, Garnacho hit six Premier League goals last season, only one behind Madueke – who was Chelsea’s strongest performing winger last season.
We all have our perceptions of players and maybe, you take a no smoke without fire approach to Garnacho. That the risk of hassle and wasted money supersedes the potential for him to be a surprising success at Chelsea.
Matt Law recently reported the club have done their checks on him, and are seemingly content to proceed if a deal is feasible on their terms.
Those terms should see Chelsea pay under £50m. Preferably under £35m given how much of an outcast he has become at United. This is not Madueke, Gittens or Elanga. Players who were prominent or still involved under the current head coach.
Also, strategically, there is some value in waiting from Chelsea’s POV. Not only do sales need to happen but the signing of Garnacho is not a pressing need. Waiting places more pressure on United to get rid the closer we reach the final days of the window. Along with that, as the Premier League kicks off, what if United’s on-pitch struggles continue?
United supporters might in fury want their club to banish Garnacho to the reserves. But we know that is highly unlikely. Amorim, aiming to forge positivity will not want unwanted faces around Carrington. As was the case with Chelsea’s bomb squad, most players will find a new home.
An opening day loss to Arsenal, maybe a struggle to find chemistry under Amorim, scrutiny grows and pressure rises for more signings and further sales. Like with Sancho in 2024, an eventual loan with a flimsy obligation to buy worked in Chelsea’s favour.
Garnacho remains an divisive figure. The likelihood of him arriving seems to grow not fade. Although the concerns are valid, the numbers are simply impossible to dismiss. There is a valid argument for signing Garnacho.